Mobile generations are not isolated events. More than five billion 6G connections are expected by 2040. Yet even then, 6G will only just have become the dominant mobile technology, with the crossover from 5G currently expected around 2035–2037. The 2030s will therefore be a decade of coexistence, with 5G and 6G networks operating alongside one another. The choices made today will help determine how much capacity mobile networks can deliver in the 2030s and how many people have access to them. Making sure 6G policies encourage investment and support widespread harmonization – delivering economies of scale – will help connect as many people as possible to robust, high-quality communications networks. What is happening now? Every generation of mobile technology is part of a long-term evolution that takes years of planning, investment, and coordination before reaching consumers and businesses at scale. Regulation, standards and spectrum all take years to develop in a harmonized fashion. That harmonization is critical to the success of every generation and will be for 6G. Harmonization does not have to mean all the world doing precisely the same thing, but means agreeing on a set of foundational parameters in spectrum, standards and policy. These are already being developed. They include access to spectrum capable of supporting wide 200–400 MHz channels in relevant bands which not only provide the raw spectrum needed for higher data rates, but also enable more efficient radio technologies, improved network economics and help deliver future AI-native services. They also include finalizing 3GPP work on globally agreed standards that form the basis of the technology. Finally, they include national digital policies that focus on network investment to ensure that the infrastructure is in place to maximize productivity and economic growth. 5G evolution
There are around 350 5G networks today, a number that still has a lot of space to grow. 5G launched in 2018 but we are only now starting its dominant period, with connections expected to overtake 4G later this decade. The promise of 5G was a consistent user experience, and it has taken time and investment to deliver this. However, as 5G begins to mature, we are seeing network quality increase and, with that, traffic is growing. Investment needs to continue in many markets across two elements of technology – 5G standalone and subsequently 5G-Advanced. Both can boost productivity and stimulate further traffic growth, but spectrum is required to realize their benefits. If spectrum is constrained to today’s levels, cities with over 50% of the world’s urban population will be capacity-constrained by 2030. The success of 5G has not been about delivering a single killer application but rather – and indeed, rather quietly – ensuring that today’s networks keep up with data demand. Capacity drivers
6G also needs to provide capacity. Network quality and data consumption are closely linked: as networks become faster and more responsive, users consume more data and new, more data-intensive applications become viable…